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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Direction Of Luhya Vote Could Decide Elections


The Luhya community have spoken in one voice and have sent a chilling message to Raila Odinga's ODM. Nominate Musalia Mudvadi as the ODM presidential candidate or the community will have to rethink where to pour their support.

Why such cockiness? And why now?

Unknown to most Kenyans, those who do tribal arithmetic regularly are now saying that the current sums minus the Luhya community put president Kibaki and Raila Odinga on a head to head level with no clear winner and it is in fact too close to call.

For all intents and purposes, it seems highly unlikely that ODM-Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka and his Kamba community (the 5th largest community according to Moi's highly suspect census figures) will team up with the original ODM. In fact Mr Musyoka has really been warming up to Kanu in recent weeks. This is in fact a great loss to ODM, although there are those analysts who insist that it was obvious that Kalonzo was not going to remain in ODM and that it is equally obvious that Raila Odinga will be the ODM candidate for president short of which his own supporters could easily lynch him if he suggests anything less. One can't help wondering what will happen if Raila loses the presidential elections to President Kibaki or another candidate.

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Taabu said...

The signal to be retrieved in all this noise is that no good thing comes out a bad one. Tribal grouping masquarading as the face of Kenya must be banished to Siberia. It served it purpose during referendum and outlived its relevance there after. Trust politicians to smell expediency miles away. They took advantage of the govt's goof and ropped in their gulible tribes.

Now the chicken are coming home to roast. You don't sharpen a knife to kiss its blades, or do you? The present ethnic bravado and grandstanding doesn't and has never augured well for Kenya. Beding the defeaning Luhya noise lurks cry for attention and deal cutting. And once you bend backwards both hands are tied and you have no free limbs to run the country.

Out politicians are simple engaging is circuses allbeit in disguise. But whom do they think they are fooling? Speak of an apt case of going through marvelous motions without the benefits of a rumour of commensurate movement. And the circular motions continue. I cry for mother Kenya. Who will save us from these wolves?

derek said...

In one of my posts here, I once said that the direction of the next government lies in the hands of two tribes. Not the Luo or Kikuyu, but the Kamba and the Luhya. It goes without saying that whoever feels that he has the chance of leading Kenya should concentrate his efforts in these two tribes.

They might look different from the big two (Kalenjin is not a tribe, just as Mijikenda is not), but they are the most democratic of tribes in the country and back their bull to the last man.

Take a look back at the first multi-party elections. Equally divided between Moi, Odinga and Matiba. The bigger chunk that had the school boys turned men and mummy’s boys in Khaniri, MMaitsi and Mudavadi, and Jirongo won the day for Kanu. Martin Shikuku’s influence in the other piece ensured that despite the Wamalawa Kijana effort, the Bukusu were kept at bay.

Among the Kamba, Emilio Kibaki shared the votes with Moi, but this was drawn to a simple fact that the then political messiah Paul Kimeu Ngei was in one way connected to the DP formation.

And now, the Luhya, in their best ways of sharing the ballots, look forward to achieving the same and true, it will take a last minute effort to change the Bukusu and the rest of Ford-kenya base.

Did I say Mudavadi one time, then keep on watching his every move and what the bigger tribe offers. I hope he loses in a democratic manner, if he has to lose in the ODM nomination, otherwise, ODM should expect a whitewash in Luhyaland. It will be the cheapest ploy to spin at election time and please let Musalia lose democratically and please no TOSHA.

derek said...

Sorry for using tribal references. I broke a self-imposed embargo. I had to follow Chris' heart for once. Until Marakwet constituency, Suba constituency, Mbeere District, Kikuyu constituency, Meru, Kipsigis Girls, Turkana, West Pokot and Taita District will go, then Kenya and voting patterns will remain divided along tribal lines.

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

Derek, those are just names of places, constituencies and a school (Kipsigis Girls) not necessarily tribes - not that I would have a problem if they just were what you are insinuating. The Kikuyu area and constituency, for instance, is not where majority of Gikuyus live. Shall we even stop calling Ukambani Ukambani because it describes the places where the Kamba tribe lives, and this is so, so so tribalistic? Give me a break!

If you think Kalenjin and Mijikenda are not tribes, why do you think Luhya is one. Why not talk of the Bukusu, Maragoli, Wanga, Tachoni (?) na kadhalika? Goes back to my earlier question-what makes a tribe?

Taabu said...

PKW, recall with due respect and utmost humility comment? Yes you do and I pick gaunlets anytime they are dropped in my sight.

Historically a tribe is a social grouping with strong sense of identity/cultural roots at its core. The Kenyan version of this take is more of kinship (read nepotism) than cultural.

Biologically a tribe can be defined as a taxonomic classification in between family and genus. In so defining, a tribe is typically used to help organize very large families, which may have hundreds of genera. So there you have it my dear and have your pick.

Strictly speaking tribe is an identity one whould be proud of but we have fallen hook line and sinker to basterdization of tribe to imply primitive as the colonizers wanted us to fell small and worthless.

And true to form we never dissapoint. We have elevated tribe to higher echelons and only see tribalism when it them and not us. Self deception and shamelessness is our mai undoing. We wax intelectual with pseudo paradigms that only make a gapping would fester.

In the Kenyan mind Jirongo and Karuri are as different as looting and growth. That is despite the fact that you loot to grow albeit personally and at others (Kenya) expense. But don't worry my dear, mother nature is often kind to her kids and will definitely sort us out by sending the scoundrels to their maker soon. The price we have to pay in all this is elastic patience. Kenya ni yetu, ama sivyo dada?

derek said...

PWK, thanx for the post. I am sorry I am a bit late to reply this, but my problem is the POLITICALLY created demarcations that ends up balkanising certain regions in the country.

It is true that for political reasons, Moi created Kuria to separate them from the Luo and make them distinct, Teso to make them look different from the other Luhya sub-tribes, Meru, Mbeere and Chuka to reward those communities for their support.

On the same, he could not name Rachuonyo Luo-South Nyanza, or Bondo otherwise, because of the single tribal connection that Siaya has. Look at the creations that the government made that border on tribe and similar division. PWK, with due respect, that was my peek. Sorry for misunderstanding me.

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